If Trump Dies

We are in unprecedented times and all we can control is ourselves.

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For the past three days the President of the United States was both alive and dead. A fetid presence in a liminal state. No one saw him, no one heard from him. All we were left with were widespread images of his failing body, rumors of declining health, and stories about Vice President JD Vance circling the Oval Office like the vulture he’s always been.

This is a trying time. Day by day there are reasons for fear and reasons for hope. Living in an era of authoritarianism has a way of crystalizing things, of compacting and stretching time, of turning the world upside down and right again. It is crazymaking at best. It would also be one thing if we were to live in a fascist country with clear and recognizable patterns, but that is hardly ever the case. This system is, by definition, dysfunctional and, as a result, we are subject to the whims of some of the worst human beings alive, their fragile emotions and egos, and their health.

Liberal democracy as a project was designed to avoid these kinds of things. Enlightenment figures saw the turmoil caused by hereditary rule and wanted to create a more stable system. Monarchs begat war and cruelty and petty feuds that destabilized everything and led to endless suffering and oppression. The twin revolutions in America and France meant to clear the board and set in place something else. The march of fascism and authoritarianism seeks to return it to this place, and what we are feeling on a daily basis is evidence of how wrongheaded and destructive that ever was.

I should say, I have no idea if Donald Trump is dying. I have nothing beyond what I have seen and what I have heard. Visually, Trump is falling apart, but I also know that the human condition is such that he could live for many more years. I know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that he is in decline. Having watched and studied him for over a decade now I can see how his worst instincts and characteristics have calcified and worsened. In my conversations with politicos and members of the journalist and political classes, discussion has centered around the rumors of his imminent demise. It is the stuff of palace intrigue, after all, a side-effect of the environment created in a monarchical situation. As information is siloed and walled off, people are left to observe and hypothesize as they absorb signals. This morning social media was abuzz with these efforts. A missing president, rumors, and a passage of time fueled a suspicion he was dead or near death.

What isn’t up for debate, however, is that this situation has spurred movements around Trump. His position as figurehead of the MAGA Movement, and his particular relationship with and influence over his cultists creates a strange situation. Among the Right, it is the equivalent of a pope of the past circling death, something that could affect orthodoxy and lead to a shift in power. Now, in this time, Trump’s condition has led to Vance and those around him to recognize an opportunity and a challenge.

I want to say, as I discuss this, and I think we need to continually remind ourselves, this is one of the many, many reasons we should not want a system like this. Trump is an abhorrent person and disastrous president. He is incapable of leading, he is driven only by poisonous self-dealing, he makes us less safe, he corrodes and destroys our institutions, and the means by which he gained power make us increasingly more endangered.

While we’re on the subject, Vance is similarly repugnant but of his own species. I have hated him since I first laid eyes on him. His rise in status and power was grounded in a willingness to betray everyone he had ever met or care for, his ascendance built on a lack of principles beyond climbing and carving. His joining of the MAGA ticket in 2024 was, for me, a clear and present danger, and, for reasons we will discuss, represented the next step in this decline.

Vance’s nomination was secured by tech oligarchs like Elon Musk and Peter Theil, the latter of which has always been Vance’s benefactor and north star. This oligarchical class has always understood Trump and is not confused about who he is or what he represents. They have continually used MAGA and his influence to forward their own interests, which are to further accumulate resources and eventually create a technofeudalistic state, which is simply a new form of fascism held together by their tools and shoddy ideologies. Vance was the wolf in sheep’s clothing. Or, rather, the wolf in a red Make America Great Again hat.

I’ve had countless discussions since he was brought on the ticket last summer about what Vance represents. I have tussled with Vance. Have watched him move and function as a class traitor and a relentless butcher boy. He is inherently dangerous. Cold-blooded. Cruel beyond description. And, if he were to inherit the presidency and the burgeoning fascist state, we will face a new challenge.

The response I have gotten when voicing this is that most people understand this implicitly, but there has been a desire to write it off. He’s not as popular as Trump. He doesn’t have Trump’s charisma. He doesn’t hold MAGA in his grip.

And these things are true. I cannot argue with any of these points, but I also want to make it clear that it might not matter. That isn’t to frighten people, but to make it clear that we must be prepared and, as I continually argue, let go of these pleasing rationalizations that keep us from recognizing our situation and fighting back.

It is accurate that Vance isn’t as popular. His approval rating hovers somewhere between food poisoning and watching a loved one suffer. He is instantly recognizable as fake, manipulative, and predatory. I doubt he could muster an effective campaign for the presidency, but if he were to succeed Trump it wouldn’t matter. He would have the office, have the power, and the last thing we need to worry about right now is the 2028 Presidential Election. There would be three years of a Vance Presidency, and that’s being optimistic that our system of free and fair elections would continue.

That’s the rub here. Fascism is not popular. It is not grounded in democratic principles. It is inherently antidemocratic. The violence, the oppression, the punishment, the sneering cruelty, none of this is intended to inspire confidence or affection beyond the core group of supporters interested only in crushing their enemies. What we are watching is the construction of a system meant to surveil, oppress, expand state power, and grind democracy under a heavy boot. Vance wouldn’t need to be popular. Vance wouldn’t need to be adored. Vance would only need to have the keys to the machine and the backing of his billionaire benefactors.

Even if we were to give Vance three years, and again this isn’t a given, that is more than enough time for this creep to put into place the type of system these fascists could only dream of. Meanwhile, the type of cruelty he excels in would twist and warp our culture, laying the groundwork for things to continue sliding downhill. In him, we would find a willing and capable tyrant.

And, as for the popularity, we do need to consider what MAGA’s reaction to Trump’s death would inspire. While most of us would celebrate to the point of exhaustion, he has been solidly canonized as a divine agent of God in their minds, and his passing would lead to mourning and, likely, a religious revival that spurred forward the agenda he carried out for the wealth and oligarchical classes. I don’t have faith that Vance could totally successfully harness that energy, but I would not in any way, shape, or form say it is impossible.

But, again, we are in speculative territory here. I have seen people in visibly worse shape than Trump live for decades. We are lost in this palace intrigue haze, grasping for signals, seeking signs, part of our brains hoping his death would somehow make this nightmare end, another part well aware that it is much more complicated than that. Soothing ourselves by saying Trump is the only component holding this thing together is foolhardy. It keeps us watching the clock, waiting this thing out. Like the hope peddlers promising one investigation or one scandal would undo him, it is yet another immobilizing instinct that keeps us from the hard and necessary work.

There is value in laying this out. We can fully grasp how systems of power work and anticipate possible openings and possible impediments. That isn’t about lying in wait or making ourselves unreasonably hopeful we are nearing the end because Trump’s body might give out. It’s about seeing the game in all its dimensions.

We cannot control this situation, at least not in this way. Trump will die eventually, the question is when and what will happen afterward. What we can control, as individuals, as communities, and as coalitions, is how we show up. We must continue to care for ourselves, heal the wounds of both capitalism and fascism, and engage in solidarity with our friends and families and neighbors. This is not a watch and wait situation. That got us to this point of observing a tyrant and seeking evidence of mortality. It got us here, where we are waiting for people to save us, for the cavalry to arrive.

Whatever happens to Trump, whatever happens with Vance, whatever happens with anyone, we have only one constant: ourselves.