What the Year May Bring

As we near the end of 2022, it's time to look toward the new year and consider what stories and trends might define our future

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For the past few years we have been living very strange lives. And the dawning of every new year has brought with it a plethora of fresh surprises. Though there is no way to predict exacty what 2023 will hold for us, I did want to sit down with four of the developing questions that have been holding my attention as of late, not necessarily for a preview but to lay the foundation for larger conversations and considerations. After all, simply reacting isn’t enough anymore. We have to build. We have to change. And doing so begins with understanding our past, our present, and preparing for our future.

1. Where Will The People’s Movement Go?

One of the most hopeful developments of my lifetime is this new movement of the people developing in response to not only authoritarianism but the inherent inequalities and intentional oppressions of the the system. Within the United States, labor actions are springing up across the map and confounding some of the largest and wealthiest corporations. It has become such a problem for these behemoths they have had to let go of their benevolent disguises and embrace the most ruthless anti-labor tactics imaginable. It’s clear that, should this continue, we will probably see conflict that goes from rhetorical and political to potentially violent.

As well, totalitarian regimes in China, Iran, and Russia are being challenged. The former seems a surprise for anyone who hasn’t paid particular attention to China’s history or who somehow or another writes off the population because of preconceived notions. The Iranian protest movement is only gaining speed despite ruthless crackdowns. It isn’t inconceivable at this point that the fundamentalist regime could legitimately fall, which opens up a completely different set of worms. Similarly, in Russia, there is less direct confrontation, but the revolutionary potential is there. Vladimir Putin’s Ukrainian gambit and the crush of decades of oligarchical control could send the situation careening into chaos. The question there is whether power would be seized by another hardliner or if the people themselves could find their way forward.

There are reasons for concern. As I discussed on the most recent episode of The Muckrake Podcast, all signs were pointing to President Joe Biden seeking to avert a massive rail strike by penning in workers agitating for reasonable, baseline treatment. Well, it’s happening. It isn’t Ronald Reagan threatening to fire air traffic controllers, but it isn’t great either. It shows that Biden and the Democratic wing he represents isn’t willing to stick by labor in the long haul, which shifts leverage in these negotiations and fights in a way that could potentially put weight on one side of the scale. And, considering economic conditions (see below) this might not be the last time we see this, or even the worst offense.

What is clear though is that there truly is something building. People are tired of this neoliberal system, with its relentless exploitation and bloodless austerity. With top-down power that never gives or even accepts blame. There will be more strikes. There will be more unions. Their development will embolden the leaders of tomorrow to not only accept the burden of leadership but also to expect more out of the world. These developments are undoubtedly going to continue. That is beyond question. What is uncertain, and what will determine our future, is what conditions will meet them, what resistance will be deployed, and how they will react.

2. Will the Bubble Burst?

In the 1970’s and 1980’s, with the spread of neoliberalism and the neoliberal consensus, the control features that kept capitalism in check were not just attacked but obliterated, reinstituting a wild and volatile market that continued, as it had in the past, to bubble and then burst. This has been the case since capitalism first reared its ugly head and we have seen it firsthand in our lifetimes. Following 2008, it would have reasoned to put the brakes back on to at least fend off the inevitable collapse, but as Alan Greenspan, chief priest of this nonsense, eventually shrugged and admitted, “the best” we can do is to deal with the consequences after the fact.

The neoliberal system is perpetually in economic crisis because its fundamentals are not sound. The inherent contradictions of capitalism - including its innate desire to concentrate in too few hands and thus throw off any balance - are fatal in the long run, it’s just a matter of when the ride ends and who’s left holding the bag. It is a grift built on top of a grift built on top of a mountain of stolen sand. Increasing debt makes the ride go a little longer and allows the contradictions to seem non-fatal, but the game works the same as it always has.

There are troubling indicators. The housing market (surprise, surprise) is once more in a terrifying position. Disruptors like COVID, the war in Ukraine, collapsing supply chains all point to neoliberal globalism in crisis and there are few indicators that things are going to stabilize anytime soon. America’s position as the unipolar hegemon is being challenged, which is creating a chaotic atmosphere where the global structure might recede backwards and reap unknown damage, at least for a period. It is not destined that 2023 will be the moment it collapses or even particularly worsens, but all of the other questions we’re looking at are affected by the wobbling and potential collapse.

Again, for those who are new to the newsletter or this brand of analysis, material conditions affect everything else. Downstream, so to speak. The parties are expressions of capitalist desires and circumstances. Culture reactions and attempts to reckon with those underlying ideas and conditions. The Republican Party is the authoritarian reckoning and the Democratic Party the professional managerial impulse that seeks so obsessively to say “the right thing” while still carrying out the wishes of the capitalist class. Should the volatility keep pace and eventually worsen, a lot of the political components we are now used to, or are watching coalesce, could carry on a predictable trajectory or fire off into almost unthinkable directions.

3. Where are the Parties Going?

As the parties are expression of the market, which has been the case for decades now, the response to this economic and political tumult will be telling. There are predictable patterns here - the GOP’s course has been set for some time even though some things remain yet unanswered - but the lingering question is whether there is a potential realignment in the works.

With the GOP’s embodying of authoritarian impulses needed to keep neoliberalism and this current order humming, the only things possible are more antidemocratic energies and more conspiracy theories. The antidemocratic impulses are a furthering of the neoliberal dismantling of representative democracy, progress, and all of the safeguards associated. If it can be achieved through a rigging of elections and processes, that would be preferrable as the illusion of democracy is far more potent and effective than its complete dissolution. But the dissolution is on the table and, once they move beyond the illusion into fullblown fascistic rule, that becomes its own problem.

Chances are the stolen Supreme Court will continue eating away at those safeguards and the progress of the 20th century. This means affirmative action, political/cultural/economic/labor protections. It means an almost full rewind of all the hard-fought battles imaginable in order to create an explicitly “disciplined” capitalist state in which the brunt of the economic suffering is first put on people of color, women, immigrants, gay and trans populations, and political rivals. Eventually, as is always the case, there will be enough suffering to go around.

The big question with the GOP is the power struggle at the top. The civil war between the libertarian/neoliberal McConnell Wing and the insurgent National Conservatives (Josh Hawley and his soon-to-be best friend J.D. Vance) powered by oligarch wealth will continue to clash, but the latter have the momentum and seem favored by both the market and momentum. 2023 will likely be the year that battle reaches fever pitch.

On the Democratic side, it remains to be seen. The stepping back of Nancy Pelosi means a reshuffling of leadership, but Hakeem Jeffries doesn’t seem likely to change all that much or lead anything resembling an opposition to the neoliberal wing. The treatment of the January 6th Committee report also speaks to an unwillingness to really challenge the corporate/professional managerial dominance of the party, but there is also a growing distrust and disillusionment within the base, which has been taken for granted for decades. That has been the party’s operating principle, that vulnerable communities and traditional support structures, including unions and working people, simply can’t turn their back on the party or move to the GOP. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been proven true and seems even more precarious than ever now, even as the GOP descends into fascistic madness.

Recent developments both concern me and give me some hope. The property/wealth-centered focus of the party has mostly been hidden behind expressions of empathetic slogans and gesturing, but as neoliberal convulses this is less and less hidden. The Democratic fetish for law enforcement and putting property values over the fates of the people is more on display than ever, and the handwringing over “wokeness” and the nonexistent “Left” has led to many supporters starting to question exactly what the party stands for.

The next year could very well see a clash between the forgotten base and the party, which would either mean alienating potentially millions of people that could create a new movement to actually fix what’s wrong or a realignment that might break this damned deadlock and standoff.

4. The Oligarchs and Tech

2022 has been a hell of a year for watching the illusion of meritocracy go up in smoke. Mark Zuckerberg seems to be in the burning billions of dollars business and Elon Musk is…well, you know.

It was an easy game, back when there was free money to be had with no interest. The system was already wired explicitly to serve the interests of the white and the wealthy, meaning from cradle to grave they had to do nothing but sit back, relax, and watch their mountains of wealth grow and grow and grow. We were told a rather devilish fairtytale the entire time: these “giants” were going to lead the way into the future. Democrats and Republicans alike told us this and held massive dinners and celebrations in their honor. And why? Because the myth held the entire facade up and the “success” stories were testaments to their own genius in shuffling OUR money into their pockets.

So. That’s changed.

I wrote about the Musk thing back in April and discussed the sadly predictable move from oligarch to fascist. The only reason I knew this was coming is because history makes it so very obvious. The 2022 struggles of Musk and Zuckerberg and the entire oligarch structure means only that 2023 and beyond will see a reaction that more fully embraces authoritarianism and antidemocratic actions. They’ll blame it on “the Left” and “wokeness” and inevitably battle against one another, as Musk is now preparing to do with Apple. There’s no telling where these battles will lead, except that there is a glimmer of hope that maybe, just maybe, it could set off rivalries that might help usher in a new era of antitrust energy. But that is only a hope and a best-case scenario-type situation.

As tech is the ground upon which they stand, what they have at their disposal is the most sophisticated and quiet powers in all of human history. Musk is already turning Twitter’s algorithm into a machine that amplifies conspiracy theories and radicalization, even as we look on and only notice that “something seems off.” Chances are these platforms, including Facebook, will tinker with their own machinery in order to subtly sway public opinion or change reality as we know it. It is, after all, what they’ve already been doing for years. But with the heat rising, there’s no doubt the efforts will increase.

There’s a reason this feels a little bit like 2015 and 2016 all over again. It isn’t just Donald Trump running, it’s the platforms re-opening the floodgates that public pressure forced them to if not close then narrow. It was always in the interest of the wealthy for Right Wing ideology and radicalization to spread. It is their same language, same principles, and has always helped them reach their own goals.

The question now is how will we deal with this? Will we recognize it, consider it, and act against it? Will there be pressure on Democratic politicians to perhaps join with Republicans who are attacking tech on behalf of constituents worried about “wokeness” and “shadow bans” and then reach across the aisle and find common ground. Possibly, but not likely. It is an opportunity though as this issue, with all of the accompanying culture war rot, provides cover for actual bipartisanship. But that, like so much of what we’re discussing here, really depends on how so many of these questions shake out.

THE MIDNIGHT KINGDOM: A HISTORY OF POWER, PARANOIA, AND THE COMING CRISIS is the story of how our modern world was built on white supremacist lies, religious mythologies, capitalist manipulations, and weaponized conspiracy theories. It is a reckoning with our past so that we can understand our present and determine our future. We are heading down a dangerous path, but I remain hopeful that we can build a better world: it begins with understanding how power protects itself and how we might ultimately win it for ourselves.