So. Here We Are: Biden as the Nominee and How Victory Can Still be Won

It has been an absolute debacle with so much teeth-gnashing. The dust seems to have settled and it's time to figure this out.

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It would take a series of articles to explain, in full, what has happened in the wake of June 27th’s disastrous presidential debate. Watching Joe Biden’s performance concerned me in a way that I attempted to articulate and set off a firestorm the likes of which we haven’t seen. The Democratic Party fell into one of the most fascinating and disorganized battles I’ve ever seen as a political analyst. The donor class threatened to desert Biden and the party if he remained in place. The media, motivated by profit incentives, capitalized off the panic with a fervor that has still yet to calm. Supporters were quick to adopt the type of conspiracism that has defined the MAGA Movement in a way that deserves future analysis and, to be frank, some deep, deep soul-searching moving forward.

But here we are.

For those interested in what has happened behind the scenes, the brief Democratic Civil War was a harried and frenzied attempt to solve a situation with very little in the way of solutions. It was a problem compounded by a lack of planning and a series of compromises. When the party settled on Biden as the nominee in 2020, at the urging and direction of Barack Obama, there was no plan beyond preparing for the election against Donald Trump and making him a one-term president. Biden was 77 years old on Election Day, already the same age as Ronald Reagan when he left office as the oldest president in United States history. His primary rivals - including Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren - were urged to unite behind him without so much as a discussion about whether Biden would seek a second term in 2024. Then, this year, the party watched as Biden made his decision to move forward.

The only option to move beyond Biden as nominee began and ended with Biden himself making the decision. In the days after the debate, strategists and party members scrambled and held one breathless meeting after another, strategized ways of finding a new candidate should he bow out, and flirted with plans to pressure him should he decide to remain. There were plenty of cliques, shadow campaigns, and young Democrats jockeying to race to the head of the theoretical pack.

But, as one member of the party in one round of meetings told me, “You either have a revolution or you don’t. They’re messy and they’re ugly. Anytime that got discussed, it became obvious they wanted it to be like changing the venue of a birthday party rather than replacing the Most Powerful Politician In The World.”

In the end, it was always Biden’s decision and any attempt to pressure him would be unseemly, divisive, and arguably counterproductive.

Biden’s defiance in the face of a party revolt sealed the deal. Power moves require nerves of steel and Democratic politicians and politicos blinked. Unless something changes in the very, very near future - including health revelations, bombshell reports, or a change of heart by Biden or the Democrats who have backed off now - Biden is the nominee of the Democratic Party heading into November.

There will be plenty of time to analyze what has happened within the Democratic Party. It’s a fascinating and consequential thing touching on the dynamics of power, generational struggle, and will be instructive in piecing together how political bodies react in the face of crises, both internal and external. As of right now, however, what is pressing is the 2024 Presidential Election and finding a direction forward that defeats Trump and the authoritarian agenda he represents.

So. There’s very little time. And we’d better get moving.

The Problem

I want to make this clear: this isn’t a rah-rah, everything’s fine analysis. I have been…troubled by what I have seen as of late. Biden’s debate performance was one of the worst we will likely ever see and, at the very least, suggested some issues about his capabilities that we can’t afford to dismiss out of hand. It should concern people that, following an event we all watched and experienced ourselves, that there was a flood of people and personalities building platforms and cashing in on offering alternative explanations and takes promising there was nothing to see, nothing to worry about.

That’s fine for the sake of catharsis, but we do not have the time or the liberty for that anymore. We either feel better in the present or we prevent the crush of authoritarianism. That’s it.

Here is the issue: the Democratic Party is now fielding a candidate who struggles to communicate, invites rampant speculation regarding his abilities to move forward, who has endured days and days of escalating scrutiny, and, before any of that, was hampered by a lack of support by young, progressive voters.

Chop everything up however you want, but these are the facts.

Right now, Biden’s communications - including his ABC interview with George Stephanopoulos, social media posts, fundraising emails, and public appearances - are dominated by his desire to state that he is going to continue his campaign and will not be forced out. These are directed, to some extent, to voters, but mostly focused on members of the media and specifically the Democratic rank and file as they have considered action.

This is a survival strategy (and not a very good one at that) and not an election strategy.

Biden’s team has to move on from fighting the ouster to creating a dynamic plan to actually win the election, change the conversation, and, considering the candidate’s limitations and public sentiment, work around the limitations.

The Answer

The answer is not more Biden. It can’t be. While he has looked and sounded somewhat better in a few rallies, appearances, and the interview, there are still problems. Biden’s public front, as of this moment, is defiance about the narrative that he is too old. It is still fighting that perception and it isn’t a perception battle that can be won. Biden is old. And, despite what people want to argue, there is no way to watch his appearances and performances and deny that fact.

Now, the conversation must shift.

The good news is that the elements are there. Donald Trump is a threat to democracy and, to boot, he has dozens of felony convictions, has a disastrous record as president, is in thrall to the wealth class that has carried out a plethora of attacks on progress and popular, consensus protections and liberties. He is aided by a Supreme Court that the vast majority of Americans despise.

So, if Biden is going to continue as the nominee, and it seems that way, and if the Democrats are going to move forward with this gambit, then options are limited and it’s time to pull out all the stops.

There are no more half-measures available. Continue with the campaign that was being run before this nominee crisis and it is going to result in a loss. Biden was trailing before any of this happened. Running a conservative and defensive campaign is no longer an option. It’s time to go big or go home.

Any solution must do five essential things: 1) Take the focus off Biden as a standalone, singular candidate. 2) Deliver something that will force a change in narrative in the press and the political environment as it stands. 3) Draw a sharp contrast in the election between the Democrats and Republicans. 4) Engage a base that is, and has been, waivering and attract voters who might be scared off by Biden’s performance. 5) Offer a direction forward if the Democratic Party is allowed to hold onto its power and possibly expand it.

I have spent a considerable amount of time poring over the problem, and I have only been able to find one solution that answers these questions.

Biden has decided to stay in this race, which is a gamble, but that gamble cannot be served by continuing to play it safe. The Democratic Party must push all of its chips into the middle and raise the stakes.

What I am advocating, and what I have been telling any Democratic member and strategist I can, is an all-hands-on deck strategy. In it, the party takes the known threats of Trump and the Right Wing establishment, shines a white hot spotlight on them, and offers a clear alternative that serves as the referendum heading into November.

It begins with Project 2025, an authoritarian wet-dream of an agenda that seeks to deal the deathblow to liberal democracy. The Right made the mistake of not just releasing this plan but continually highlighting it for Republicans as a promise should Trump return to power. It is so awful and cruel and dangerous that millions of Americans are now becoming aware of the Right Wing think-tank system that operates on behalf of the wealth class. In other words, they got cocky.

Leading to the Democratic National Convention in late August, the party needs to undertake an aggressive and ambitious program in which coalition leaders, local and regional organizations, and everyone who has been decimated by neoliberalism and the Right Wing authoritarian project, meets and drafts an anti-Project 2025 agenda. It needs to be sweeping, specific, ambitious, and obvious in its benefits. Stop worrying about budgets or seeming too radical. Put together a robust agenda that puts Project 2025 and this new plan forward as the choices in November.

Democratic strategists, consultants, and politicians can observe, but leave the people and the groups alone. Listen to them. Hear what they want. Don’t tell them to be “realistic” or to temper their expectations. Get your marching orders and figure out how the hell to get it done when you’ve listened. That’s it. That’s your job.

The plans should both stand in stark opposition to what Project 2025 proposes and emphasize broadly popular policies. This includes codifying reproductive rights, reestablishing national voting protections, battling anti-gay and trans polices in so-called Red States, New Deal-level reinvestment in the social safety net and public works, a brand new and expansive education overhaul, and a focus on court reform, including discussions about packing the Supreme Court.

It is not enough to say you are going to protect what we already have. That is conservatism. What people want is progress, and progress is the only counter-balance to a reactionary, authoritarian movement.

Besides being wildly popular, this would bring the base and supporting coalitions to the table and create an incentive to fight, highlight the authoritarian and destructive push by the GOP, turn the election into a referendum that, for all intents and purposes, would hurt the Republican chances, definitively change the narrative going forward, and create a vision for the future that would last even beyond Biden, which is what the campaign has been missing since the very beginning.

No more vague references in speeches. Verbal reassurances and gestures. A meticulously put-together plan that presents real and understandable choices and promises at least an attempt to swing power from the wealthy back to the masses.

Make no mistake. This is a moonshot. But it is the type of vibrancy needed, it would be incredibly popular, and, to boot, it is what should happen anyway. We can talk about Biden’s successes in his first term while also weighing the failures and tragedies, but all along what has been absent is a less-cautious and game-changing agenda.

If this is what we have going forward, and it certainly appears that it is, then the time for cautious is long-since passed. There is a way forward, but continuing to be fearful will only deliver a deathblow to democracy.